"What does it profit us to maintain lockstep support from a party that has a very good chance of being locked out of national power for a generation?"
I'm always very skeptical of these claims, because I've heard them so many times before. People were saying the same thing about the Democratic Party in 2004: Just like 2024, Dems had just suffered a massive popular vote defeat against a fairly unpopular President, and lost both Houses of Congress on top of that. Pundits and analysts debated whether a Democratic candidate could ever win the Presidency again, and there was speculation that Dems would be locked out of power for a decade or more.
Then 2008 came along, and not only did Dems win the White House, they won a trifecta with a Senate supermajority. Which ironically resulted in people saying the exact same things in reverse: Commentators wondered if the GOP would ever be able to make a comeback. Up until the day of Trump's victory in 2016, there was speculation that the end of the Republican Party was at hand.
Go back further than 2000, and you can find several other examples of this happening. 1924, 1932, 1972, and 1984 are particularly glaring, but 1932 was the only time that the winning party actually held onto power for a significant time, while 1924 and to a lesser extent 1984 were followed by sharp reversals within the decade.
I know there are unique threats facing the country right now: You mentioned that Republicans have been amassing hard power, and I do think there's a low but steadily rising chance that MAGA might try to seize control of the government and keep their political opponents out of power through extralegal means. (Though if Trump does try it, the most likely result would be total state failure or outright civil war, not MAGA domination. Given how divided both the populace and the military are, it's hard to say who - if anyone - would eventually come out on top in that scenario.)
But assuming that doesn't happen, and speaking purely within the realm of electoral politics, I don't see any reason to think the pendulum won't swing the other way. I keep hearing claims about how "Democrats lost so hard that they can't possibly come back from this, they've permanently lost the trust and support of the public", but I'm very unconvinced. It's never worked that way in the past, and - again, barring some kind of Constitutional crisis or a literal coup by MAGA extremists - I don't think it's going to work that way now.
"What does it profit us to maintain lockstep support from a party that has a very good chance of being locked out of national power for a generation?"
I'm always very skeptical of these claims, because I've heard them so many times before. People were saying the same thing about the Democratic Party in 2004: Just like 2024, Dems had just suffered a massive popular vote defeat against a fairly unpopular President, and lost both Houses of Congress on top of that. Pundits and analysts debated whether a Democratic candidate could ever win the Presidency again, and there was speculation that Dems would be locked out of power for a decade or more.
Then 2008 came along, and not only did Dems win the White House, they won a trifecta with a Senate supermajority. Which ironically resulted in people saying the exact same things in reverse: Commentators wondered if the GOP would ever be able to make a comeback. Up until the day of Trump's victory in 2016, there was speculation that the end of the Republican Party was at hand.
Go back further than 2000, and you can find several other examples of this happening. 1924, 1932, 1972, and 1984 are particularly glaring, but 1932 was the only time that the winning party actually held onto power for a significant time, while 1924 and to a lesser extent 1984 were followed by sharp reversals within the decade.
I know there are unique threats facing the country right now: You mentioned that Republicans have been amassing hard power, and I do think there's a low but steadily rising chance that MAGA might try to seize control of the government and keep their political opponents out of power through extralegal means. (Though if Trump does try it, the most likely result would be total state failure or outright civil war, not MAGA domination. Given how divided both the populace and the military are, it's hard to say who - if anyone - would eventually come out on top in that scenario.)
But assuming that doesn't happen, and speaking purely within the realm of electoral politics, I don't see any reason to think the pendulum won't swing the other way. I keep hearing claims about how "Democrats lost so hard that they can't possibly come back from this, they've permanently lost the trust and support of the public", but I'm very unconvinced. It's never worked that way in the past, and - again, barring some kind of Constitutional crisis or a literal coup by MAGA extremists - I don't think it's going to work that way now.